Possible Future Scenarios for Ukraine

The Komsolmolskaya Pravda published a “debate” between a journalist and a “political scientist” showing three possible scenarios for Ukraine:

1. Optimistic plan: Ukraine remains in its current size (minus the territories of the DPR and LPR within their administrative boundaries).For that, Ukraine would have to:

i. officially recognizes the Crimea as Russian territory and the independence of Donbass;

ii. introduce into the constitution a provision of neutrality and non-alignment;

iii. the renunciation of nuclear weapons;

iv. extradite war criminals at the request of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation;

v. fixes the position of the Russian language as the second state language.

2. Realistic plan: divide Ukraine into several parts

Create several formally independent republics similarly to the DPR and LPR, on the basis the of predominantly Russian-speaking regions of historical Slobozhanshchina and Novorossiya – Kharkiv People’s, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Kherson, Nikolaev and Odessa At the second stage, at the unification congress of people’s representatives, they, together with the DPR and LPR, as well as Pridnestrovie, which will join them, can declare the creation of a new independent state that is in close allied relations with the Russian Federation – Novorossiya.


3. Worst case plan: destroy Ukraine as a country

If the “special operation” becomes irreversible and completely uncontrollable, Novorossiya and Little Russia  will simply enter Russia as republics, territories and regions. Romania and Hungary will be able to claim Bukovina and Transcarpathia, and Poland will be able to claim six western regions.




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